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Wind and Structures Volume 25, Number 3, September 2017 , pages 261-282 DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/was.2017.25.3.261 |
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A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds based on the t-Copula function |
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Yong Quan, Jingcheng Wang and Ming Gu
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| Abstract | ||
| The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman\'s rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed. | ||
| Key Words | ||
| directional extreme wind speeds; t-Copula; joint probability distribution; directionality; dependence | ||
| Address | ||
| Yong Quan, Jingcheng Wang and Ming Gu: State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China | ||