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Wind and Structures
  Volume 22, Number 5, May 2016 , pages 543-553
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/was.2016.22.5.543
 


A Bayesian network based framework to evaluate reliability in wind turbines
Maryam Ashrafi, Hamid Davoudpour and Vahid Khodakarami

 
Abstract
    The growing complexity of modern technological systems requires more flexible and powerful reliability analysis tools. Existing tools encounter a number of limitations including lack of modeling power to address components interactions for complex systems and lack of flexibility in handling component failure distribution. We propose a reliability modeling framework based on the Bayesian network (BN). It can combine historical data with expert judgment to treat data scarcity. The proposed methodology is applied to wind turbines reliability analysis. The observed result shows that a BN based reliability modeling is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, BN provides performing several inference approaches such as smoothing, filtering, what-if analysis, and sensitivity analysis for considering system.
 
Key Words
    wind turbine; reliability; risk; Bayesian network
 
Address
Maryam Ashrafi and Hamid Davoudpour: Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Department, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Vahid Khodakarami: Industrial Engineering Department, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
 

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