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Structural Engineering and Mechanics
  Volume 9, Number 6, June 2000, pages 557-568

RELTSYS: A computer program for life prediction of deteriorating systems
Enright MP, Frangopol DM

    As time-variant reliability approaches become increasingly used for service life prediction of the aging infrastructure, the demand for computer solution methods continues to increase. Effcient computer techniques have become well established for the reliability analysis of structural systems. Thus far, however, this is largely limited to time-invariant reliability problems. Therefore, the requirements for time-variant reliability prediction of deteriorating structural systems under time-variant loads have remained incomplete. This study presents a computer program for RELiability of Time-Variant SYStems, RELTSYS. This program uses a combined technique of adaptive importance sampling, numerical integration, and fault tree analysis to compute time-variant reliabilities of individual components and systems. Time-invariant quantities are generated using Monte Carlo simulation, whereas time-variant quantities are evaluated using numerical integration. Load distribution and post-failure redistribution are considered using fault tree analysis. The strengths and limitations of RELTSYS are presented via a numerical example.

Key Words
    deteriorating systems, fail-safe structures, importance sampling, life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation, numerical integration, random variables, time-variant reliability
Enright MP, Univ Colorado, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
Univ Colorado, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

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