Techno Press
Techno Press

Structural Engineering and Mechanics
  Volume 86, Number 4, May25 2023 , pages 547-571
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2023.86.4.547
 


Empirical seismic vulnerability probability prediction model of RC structures considering historical field observation
Si-Qi Li, Hong-Bo Liu, Ke Du, Jia-Cheng Han, Yi-Ru Li and Li-Hui Yin

 
Abstract
    To deeply probe the actual earthquake level and fragility of typical reinforced concrete (RC) structures under multiple intensity grades, considering diachronic measurement building stock samples and actual observations of representative catastrophic earth shocks in China from 1990 to 2010, RC structures were divided into traditional RC structures (TRCs) and bottom reinforced concrete frame seismic wall masonry (BFM) structures, and the empirical damage characteristics and mechanisms were analysed. A great deal of statistics and induction were developed on the historical experience investigation data of 59 typical catastrophic earthquakes in 9 provinces of China. The database and fragility matrix prediction model were established with TRCs of 4,122.5284x104 m2 and 5,844 buildings and BFMs of 5,872 buildings as empirical seismic damage samples. By employing the methods of structural damage probability and statistics, nonlinear prediction of seismic vulnerability, and numerical and applied functional analysis, the comparison matrix of actual fragility probability prediction of TRC and BFM in multiple intensity regions under the latest version of China's macrointensity standard was established. A novel nonlinear regression prediction model of seismic vulnerability was proposed, and prediction models considering the seismic damage ratio and transcendental probability parameters were constructed. The time-varying vulnerability comparative model of the sample database was developed according to the different periods of multiple earthquakes. The new calculation method of the average fragility prediction index (AFPI) matrix parameter model has been proposed to predict the seismic fragility of an areal RC structure.
 
Key Words
    average fragility prediction index matrix; empirical damage vulnerability; field reconnaissance observation; RC (TRC and BFM) structure; vulnerability prediction model
 
Address
Si-Qi Li: School of Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang University, No.74, Xuefu Road, Harbin City, China; Longjian Road and Bridge Co. Ltd., No. 109, Songshan Road, Harbin City, China; School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin City, China
Hong-Bo Liu, Ke Du, Jia-Cheng Han, Yi-Ru Li, Li-Hui Yin: School of Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang University, No.74, Xuefu Road, Harbin City, China
 

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