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Structural Engineering and Mechanics Volume 29, Number 2, May30 2008 , pages 187-201 DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2008.29.2.187 |
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A methodology to estimate earthquake induced worst failure probability of inelastic systems |
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Bulent Akbas, Mustafa Nadar and Jay Shen
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| Abstract | ||
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Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic singledegree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable. | ||
| Key Words | ||
| failure probability; hysteretic energy demand; hysteretic energy capacity; confidence interval; non-linear analysis. | ||
| Address | ||
| Bulent Akbas: Department of Earthquake and Structural Science, Gebze Institute of Technology, 41400 Gebze-Kocaeli, Turkey Mustafa Nadar: Department of Mathematics, Gebze Institute of Technology, 41400 Gebze-Kocaeli, Turkey Jay Shen: Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, 60616-3793 Chicago, IL, USA | ||