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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 9, Number 1, July 2015, pages 57-81

Dynamic risk assessment of water inrush in tunnelling and software development
L.P. Li, T. Lei, S.C. Li, Z.H. Xu, Y.G. Xue and S.S. Shi

    Water inrush and mud outburst always restricts the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. In view of the complex disaster-causing mechanism and difficult quantitative predictions of water inrush and mud outburst, several theoretical methods are adopted to realize dynamic assessment of water inrush in the progressive process of tunnel construction. Concerning both the geological condition and construction situation, eleven risk factors are quantitatively described and an assessment system is developed to evaluate the water inrush risk. In the static assessment, the weights of eight risk factors about the geological condition are determined using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Each factor is scored by experts and the synthesis scores are weighted. The risk level is ultimately determined based on the scoring outcome which is derived from the sum of products of weights and comprehensive scores. In the secondary assessment, the eight risk factors in static assessment and three factors about construction situation are quantitatively analyzed using fuzzy evaluation method. Subordinate levels and weight of factors are prepared and then used to calculate the comprehensive subordinate degree and risk level. In the dynamic assessment, the classical field of the eleven risk factors is normalized by using the extension evaluation method. From the input of the matter-element, weights of risk factors are determined and correlation analysis is carried out to determine the risk level. This system has been applied to the dynamic assessment of water inrush during construction of the Yuanliangshan tunnel of Yuhuai Railway. The assessment results are consistent with the actual excavation, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the software. The developed system is believed capable to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of water inrush in the underground engineering construction.
Key Words
    tunnelling; water inrush; dynamic assessment; software development; engineering application
(1) L.P. Li, T. Lei, S.C. Li, Z.H. Xu, Y.G. Xue, S.S. Shi:
Geotechnical & Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong 250061, China;
(2) L.P. Li:
Key Laboratory of Harbor, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering of Ministry of Communications, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China.

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