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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 28, Number 4, February25 2022 , pages 421-435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2022.28.4.421
 


A Markov-based prediction model of tunnel geology, construction time, and construction costs
Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Hunar Farid Hama Ali, Sirwan Ghafoor Salim, Sazan Nariman Abdulhamid, Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim and Shima Rashidi

 
Abstract
    The necessity of estimating the time and cost required for tunnel construction has led to extensive research in this regard. Since geological conditions are significant factors in terms of time and cost of road tunnels, considering these conditions is crucial. Uncertainties about the geological conditions of a tunnel alignment cause difficulties in planning ahead of the required construction time and costs. In this paper, the continuous-space, discrete-state Markov process has been used to predict geological conditions. The Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation (MCS) method is employed to estimate the construction time and costs of a road tunnel project using the input data obtained from six tunneling expert questionnaires. In the first case, the input data obtained from each expert are individually considered and in the second case, they are simultaneously considered. Finally, a comparison of these two modes based on the technique presented in this article suggests considering views of several experts simultaneously to reduce uncertainties and ensure the results obtained for geological conditions and the construction time and costs.
 
Key Words
    construction time and costs; continuous-space discrete-state Markov process; road tunnels; tunnel geology
 
Address
Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh and Hunar Farid Hama Ali: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Halabja,Halabja, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Mokhtar Mohammadi: Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Sirwan Ghafoor Salim: City Planning Department, Technical College of Engineering, Sulaimani Polytechnic University,
Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Sazan Nariman Abdulhamid and Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim: 4Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Salahaddin University-Erbil, 44002 Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Shima Rashidi: Department of Computer Science, College of Science and Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
 

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