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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 22, Number 4, August25 2020, pages 291-303

Probabilistic analysis of tunnel collapse: Bayesian method for detecting change points
Binghua Zhou, Yiguo Xue, Shucai Li, Daohong Qiu, Yufan Tao, Kai Zhang, Xueliang Zhang and Teng Xia

     The deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel manifests due to the stress redistribution within the surrounding rock. By observing the deformation of the surrounding rock, we can not only determine the stability of the surrounding rock and supporting structure but also predict the future state of the surrounding rock. In this paper, we used grey system theory to analyse the factors that affect the deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel. The results show that the 5 main influencing factors are longitudinal wave velocity, tunnel burial depth, groundwater development, surrounding rock support type and construction management level. Furthermore, we used seismic prospecting data, preliminary survey data and excavated section monitoring data to establish a neural network learning model to predict the total amount of deformation of the surrounding rock during tunnel collapse. Subsequently, the probability of a change in deformation in each predicted section was obtained by using a Bayesian method for detecting change points. Finally, through an analysis of the distribution of the change probability and a comparison with the actual situation, we deduced the survey mark at which collapse would most likely occur. Surface collapse suddenly occurred when the tunnel was excavated to this predicted distance. This work further proved that the Bayesian method can accurately detect change points for risk evaluation, enhancing the accuracy of tunnel collapse forecasting. This research provides a reference and a guide for future research on the probability analysis of tunnel collapse.
Key Words
    tunnel collapse; deformation prediction; Bayesian method; detecting change points
Binghua Zhou, Yiguo Xue, Shucai Li, Daohong Qiu, Yufan Tao, Kai Zhang, Xueliang Zhang and Teng Xia: Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Ji\'nan 250061, Shandong, China

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