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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 22, Number 3, August10 2020, pages 207-217
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2020.22.3.207
 


Reliability and risk assessment for rainfall-induced slope failure in spatially variable soils
Liuyuan Zhao, Yu Huang, Min Xiong and Guanbao Ye

 
Abstract
    Slope reliability analysis and risk assessment for spatially variable soils under rainfall infiltration are important subjects but they have not been well addressed. This lack of study may in part be due to the multiple and diverse evaluation indexes and the low computational efficiency of Monte-Carlo simulations. To remedy this, this paper proposes a highly efficient computational method for investigating random field problems for slopes. First, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) is introduced. This method has high computational efficiency and does not need the tens of thousands of numerical simulation samples required by other methods. Second, the influence of rainfall on slope reliability is investigated, where the reliability is calculated from based on the safety factor curves during the rainfall. Finally, the uncertainty of the sliding mass for the slope random field problem is analyzed. Slope failure consequences are considered to be directly correlated with the sliding mass. Calculations showed that the mass that slides is smaller than the potential sliding mass (shallow surface sliding in rainfall). Sliding mass-based risk assessment is both needed and feasible for engineered slope design. The efficient PDEM is recommended for problems requiring lengthy calculations such as random field problems coupled with rainfall infiltration.
 
Key Words
    slope risk assessment; rainfall-induced slope failure; random fields; spatially variable soil; probability density evolution method
 
Address
Liuyuan Zhao: 1.) Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
2.) PowerChina Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 311122, China

Yu Huang and Guanbao Ye: 1.) Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
2.) Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Min Xiong: Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
 

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