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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 21, Number 2, April25 2020, pages 179-186

Development of seismic fragility curves for high-speed railway system using earthquake case histories
Seunghoon Yang, Dongyoup Kwak and Tadahiro Kishida

    Investigating damage potential of the railway infrastructure requires either large amount of case histories or in-depth numerical analyses, or both for which large amounts of effort and time are necessary to accomplish thoroughly. Rather than performing comprehensive studies for each damage case, in this study we collect and analyze a case history of the high-speed railway system damaged by the 2004 M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake for the development of the seismic fragility curve. The development processes are: 1) slice the railway system as 200 m segments and assigned damage levels and intensity measures (IMs) to each segment; 2) calculate probability of damage for a given IM; 3) estimate fragility curves using the maximum likelihood estimation regression method. Among IMs considered for fragility curves, spectral acceleration at 3 second period has the most prediction power for the probability of damage occurrence. Also, viaduct-type structure provides less scattered probability data points resulting in the best-fitted fragility curve, but for the tunnel-type structure data are poorly scattered for which fragility curve fitted is not meaningful. For validation purpose fragility curves developed are applied to the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake case history by which another high-speed railway system was damaged. The number of actual damaged segments by the 2016 event is 25, and the number of equivalent damaged segments predicted using fragility curve is 22.21. Both numbers are very similar indicating that the developed fragility curve fits well to the Kumamoto region. Comparing with railway fragility curves from HAZUS, we found that HAZUS fragility curves are more conservative.
Key Words
    high-speed railway; fragility curve; 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake; 2016 Kumamoto earthquake; Shinkansen; damage level
Seunghoon Yang and Dongyoup Kwak: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, ERICA, 55 Hanyangdaehak-ro, Sangnok-gu, Ansan-si, Gyeonggi-do 15588, Republic of Korea

Tadahiro Kishida: Department of Civil Infrastructure and Environmental Engineering, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.


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