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Geomechanics and Engineering
  Volume 14, Number 6, April30 2018 , pages 589-600

Stochastic analysis for uncertain deformation of foundations in permafrost regions
Tao Wang, Guoqing Zhou, Jianzhou Wang, Xiaodong Zhao and Leijian Yin

    For foundations in permafrost regions, the displacement characteristics are uncertain because of the randomness of temperature characteristics and mechanical parameters, which make the structural system have an unexpected deviation and unpredictability. It will affect the safety of design and construction. In this paper, we consider the randomness of temperature characteristics and mechanical parameters. A stochastic analysis model for the uncertain displacement characteristic of foundations is presented, and the stochastic coupling program is compiled by Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software. The stochastic displacement fields of an embankment in a permafrost region are obtained and analyzed by Neumann stochastic finite element method (NSFEM). The results provide a new way to predict the deformation characteristics of foundations in permafrost regions, and it shows that the stochastic temperature has a different influence on the stochastic lateral displacement and vertical displacement. Construction disturbance and climate warming lead to three different stages for the mean settlement of characteristic points. For the stochastic settlement characteristic, the standard deviation increases with time, which imply that the results of conventional deterministic analysis may be far from the true value. These results can improve our understanding of the stochastic deformation fields of embankments and provide a theoretical basis for engineering reliability analysis and design in permafrost regions.
Key Words
    stochastic analysis; uncertain deformation; foundations; permafrost regions; random field
Tao Wang, Guoqing Zhou, Jianzhou Wang, Xiaodong Zhao and Leijian Yin: State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering, School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 221116, China

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