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Earthquakes and Structures
  Volume 4, Number 5, May 2013 , pages 525-555

Probabilistic seismic demand models and fragility estimates for reinforced concrete bridges with base isolation
Paolo Gardoni and David Trejo

    This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans\' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.
Key Words
    seismic demand; probabilistic model; experimental design; finite element; highway bridge;base isolation; seismic fragility; importance analysis
Paolo Gardoni: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana,IL 61801, USA; David Trejo: School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

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