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Earthquakes and Structures
  Volume 18, Number 1, January 2020 , pages 73-82

Prediction of coal and gas outburst risk at driving working face based on Bayes discriminant analysis model
Liang Chen, Liang Yu, Jianchun Ou, Yinbo Zhou, Jiangwei Fu and Fei Wang

    With the coal mining depth increasing, both stress and gas pressure rapidly enhance, causing coal and gas outburst risk to become more complex and severe. The conventional method for prediction of coal and gas outburst adopts one prediction index and corresponding critical value to forecast and cannot reflect all the factors impacting coal and gas outburst, thus it is characteristic of false and missing forecasts and poor accuracy. For the reason, based on analyses of both the prediction indicators and the factors impacting coal and gas outburst at the test site, this work carefully selected 6 prediction indicators such as the index of gas desorption from drill cuttings delta-h2, the amount of drill cuttings S, gas content W, the gas initial diffusion velocity index delta-P, the intensity of electromagnetic radiation E and its number of pulse N, constructed the Bayes discriminant analysis (BDA) index system, studied the BDA-based multi-index comprehensive model for forecast of coal and gas outburst risk, and used the established discriminant model to conduct coal and gas outburst prediction. Results showed that the BDA -based multi-index comprehensive model for prediction of coal and gas outburst has an 100% of prediction accuracy, without wrong and omitted predictions, can also accurately forecast the outburst risk even for the low indicators outburst. The prediction method set up by this study has a broad application prospect in the prediction of coal and gas outburst risk.
Key Words
    coal and gas outburst; prediction; working face; Bayes discriminant analysis
Liang Chen, Liang Yu, Jiangwei Fu: School of Energy & Environment Engineering, Zhongyuan University of Technology, 450007 Zhengzhou, Henan, China
Liang Chen: State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base for Gas Geology and Gas Control, Henan Polytechnic University, 454000 Jiaozuo, Henan, China
Jianchun Ou: State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, China University of Mining and Technology, 221116 Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China
Yinbo Zhou: School of Safety Engineering, Henan University of Engineering, 451191 Zhengzhou Henan, China
Fei Wang:School of Mechanics and Safety Engineering, Zhengzhou University, 450001 Zhengzhou Henan, China

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