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Earthquakes and Structures
  Volume 13, Number 3, September 2017, pages 323-335
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12989/eas.2017.13.3.323
 


Probabilistic estimation of seismic economic losses of portal-like precast industrial buildings
Cristoforo Demartino, Ivo Vanzi and Giorgio Monti

 
Abstract
    A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.
 
Key Words
    structural vulnerability; insurance policy; uncertainties; monte carlo
 
Address
Cristoforo Demartino and Giorgio Monti:
1) College of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, PR China
2) DISG, Sapienza University of Rome, via A. Gramsci 53, 00197 Rome, Italy
Ivo Vanzi: Department of Engineering and Geology, University \"G. d\' Annunzio\" of Chieti-Pescara, viale Pindaro, Pescara, Italy
 

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