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Earthquakes and Structures Volume 11, Number 5, November 2016 , pages 861-871 DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.861 |
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On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen |
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Maurice H.P.M. van Putten, Anton F.P. van Putten and Michael J.A.M. van Putten
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| Abstract | ||
| The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event <M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions. | ||
| Key Words | ||
| induced earthquakes; crack formation; statistical forecasting | ||
| Address | ||
| Maurice H.P.M. van Putten: Physics and Astronomy, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea Anton F.P. van Putten: AnMar Research Laboratories B.V., Eindhoven, The Netherlands Michael J.A.M. van Putten: Clinical Neurophysiology, Medisch Spectrum Twente and University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands | ||