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Earthquakes and Structures
  Volume 10, Number 2, February 2016, pages 429-450

Incorporation of collapse safety margin into direct earthquake loss estimate
Lina Xian, Zheng He and Xiaoying Ou

    An attempt has been made to incorporate the concept of collapse safety margin into the procedures proposed in the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework for direct earthquake loss estimation, in which the collapse probability curve obtained from incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is mathematically characterized with the S-type fitting model. The regressive collapse probability curve is then used to identify non-collapse cases and collapse cases. With the assumed lognormal probability distribution for non-collapse damage indexes, the expected direct earthquake loss ratio is calculated from the weighted average over several damage states for non-collapse cases. Collapse safety margin is shown to be strongly related with sustained damage endurance of structures. Such endurance exhibits a strong link with expected direct earthquake loss. The results from the case study on three concrete frames indicate that increase in cross section cannot always achieve a more desirable output of collapse safety margin and less direct earthquake loss. It is a more effective way to acquire wider collapse safety margin and less direct earthquake loss through proper enhancement of reinforcement in structural components. Interestingly, total expected direct earthquake loss ratio seems to be insensitive a change in cross section. It has demonstrated a consistent correlation with collapse safety margin. The results also indicates that, if direct economic loss is seriously concerned, it is of much significance to reduce the probability of occurrence of moderate and even severe damage, as well as the probability of structural collapse.
Key Words
    collapse margin ratio; earthquake; damage model; loss ratio; OpenSEES; collapse probability
Lina Xian: College of Resources and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China

Lina Xian: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China

Zheng He: Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

Xiaoying Ou: College of Civil and Safety Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China

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